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El Nino could be off the charts, WMO warns, as UN releases $50 million to protect the most vulnerable

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Editor's note: TrendDesh has reported NASA satellite data on this year's El Nino. This report covers the UN appeal made on 21 October.

The current El Nino could be “off the monitoring charts” used for the past four decades and will peak towards the end of 2026, the World Meteorological Organization warned on 21 October 2026, as two UN agencies appealed for immediate help for communities already being hit, UN News reported.

El Nino: A child in the Praia Nova neighbourhood of Beira, Mozambique, which was hit by cyclones in 2019 and 2021 (file photo)
A child in the Praia Nova neighbourhood of Beira, Mozambique, which was hit by cyclones in 2019 and 2021 (file photo) Photo: UNICEF/Ricardo Franco via UN News (editorial use with credit).

What WMO chief Celeste Saulo said about El Nino

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may rise to 3.8C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, according to the agency’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update. An anomaly of 0.5C above normal is enough to trigger a WMO El Nino alert, and past events linked to 3C anomalies brought “very substantive impacts across the world”, she said, but “we are beyond that limit”. She said extreme weather was already being seen and would multiply as El Nino intensifies, but stressed that science forecasts and early warnings can save lives. “A powerful El Nino does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster,” she said.

Key Facts

  • Peak expected: towards end of 2026
  • Possible Pacific anomaly: up to 3.8C (Nov 2026-Jan 2027)
  • People at risk of more hunger: about 50 million
  • CERF release: over $50 million for 11 countries
  • Cost to Africa (AfDB estimate): $10-20 billion

“It would be an extraordinary failure to see this crisis coming and yet still squander the opportunity to protect people in its path.”

— Tom Fletcher, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator (via UN News)

Tom Fletcher releases $50 million from CERF

UN emergency relief chief Tom Fletcher called the event a “behemoth” and a “wrecking ball” that will likely hit Latin America, eastern and southern Africa, Asia and the Pacific with extreme heat, droughts and floods. He said the next two weeks would be critical, and that Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya urgently need funding and supplies before heavy rains arrive. Some 50 million people could face increased hunger, he said, citing an African Development Bank estimate that the event could cost African countries $10-20 billion and cut GDP by one to two per cent. He announced more than $50 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund for 11 countries, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan.

Preparing before disaster strikes

Fletcher said the impact will be felt for months and possibly years, with added strain on aid supply chains from disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea. UN agencies are helping countries build disaster risk reduction into shelter planning, UN News said: UNDP helped build barriers against mud and debris flows in Antofagasta, Chile; Madagascar is developing a five-year shelter plan; and in Yemen, where flash floods hit over 100,000 households in 2024, UNHCR and partners backed a 2.5 km flood diversion channel in Al-Hazm district. Priorities differ by region, with seeds and livestock protection in southern Africa and livelihood support in Central America. He linked those supply problems to the war between Iran and the United States and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Why It Matters: El Nino is closely watched in India because it has often been linked with weaker monsoon rainfall, so a record-strength event matters for food and water planning well beyond the countries named by the UN.

Also on TrendDesh: El Nino 2026: NASA satellites track what may be the strongest El Nino since 1950 · Afghanistan hunger: UN says food is in markets but families cannot afford it as winter nears

Source: UN News, 21 Oct 2026 · World Meteorological Organization · OCHA: Central Emergency Response Fund

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