El Nino 2026 may rival 1997, NASA says

Update: TrendDesh earlier reported on the UN's El Nino warnings and the fires in New Guinea. This story adds NASA's new satellite comparison with past El Nino events.

El Nino 2026 now rivals the strongest events on record and may become even bigger than the 1997-98 El Nino, according to a NASA Earth Observatory analysis published on 23 October 2026 that uses 35 years of satellite sea level data.

El Nino 2026: NASA maps comparing Pacific sea level anomalies in October 1997 and October 2026 — NASA maps comparing Pacific sea level anomalies in October 1997 and October 2026 Photo: NASA Earth Observatory, data from NASA JPL (public domain).

How NASA compares El Nino 2026 with 1997

NASA said El Nino is a natural climate pattern that occurs roughly every two to seven years and brings warmer-than-normal water to parts of the equatorial Pacific. The recent very strong events, in 1997-98 and 2015-16, upended weather around the world, from fires in Indonesia and the Amazon to drought-driven crop failures in southern Africa and heavy rain in Southern California. Its new maps show sea surface height anomalies on 13 October 1997 and 12 October 2026. Because water expands as it warms, higher-than-normal sea levels in the central and eastern Pacific signal the heat build-up linked to El Nino. Josh Willis, project scientist for sea level missions at NASA JPL, said that right now this event is on track to be even bigger than 1997.

Key Facts

Data record: 35 years of satellite altimetry
Maps compared: 13 Oct 1997 and 12 Oct 2026
2026 satellite: Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich
El Nino recurs roughly every 2 to 7 years
Past heavyweights: 1997-98 and 2015-16

“Right now, this one is on track to be even bigger.”
— Josh Willis, NASA JPL

What the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich data show

The 2026 map comes from the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite, while the 1997 map uses TOPEX/Poseidon data, both processed by scientists at JPL. Red shades mark higher-than-average sea levels, white marks normal conditions and blue marks lower areas. Willis said altimetry is unique because it offers a 35-year record from nearly identical satellites flying almost the same ground track. NASA said the 2026 event came on much more suddenly than in 1997-98. As of October, however, the two look similar in character, with sea level low in the west, high in the east and warm water reaching all the way to South America, so Willis thinks the impacts could be similar too.

Why every El Nino behaves differently

NASA explained that each El Nino grows from a feedback loop between the atmosphere and ocean. Trade winds normally pile warm water up in the western Pacific; when they weaken, warm water pulses east, weakening the winds further. But each event has its own character. “The search for the typical El Nino is very elusive,” Willis said. NASA noted that in 2015 the exceptionally warm, high water along the equator did not push up against South America as much as in 1997 or 2026, and that winter’s rainfall impacts were concentrated over Central America and the southeastern United States. In 1997-98, the pattern brought heavy rain to California and the southern United States. NASA said satellite altimetry will keep tracking how the 2026 event develops in the coming months.

Why It Matters: A very strong El Nino can shift rainfall and temperatures worldwide, so early comparisons with past events help forecasters and governments prepare.

Source: NASA Earth Observatory, 23 Oct 2026 · NASA: Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich