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Thwaites Glacier could add twice as much to sea level rise as some projections, NASA-backed study finds

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Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier could contribute more to sea level rise by 2100 than some previous estimates, and in some simulations as much as twice current projections, according to a study using a computer model developed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA said on 20 October 2026. The research, with the University of California, Irvine and Dartmouth College, was published on 12 October in Nature Communications.

Thwaites Glacier: Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier pictured in 2014
Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier pictured in 2014 Photo: NASA (public domain).

Why grounding zones change the Thwaites Glacier picture

Most ice-sheet models treat the transition between ice resting on the seabed and ice floating on the ocean as a sharp boundary, a grounding line. This model instead treats it as a grounding zone, an area where seawater penetrates several kilometres beneath the grounded ice and lifts it during tidal cycles, NASA said. That brings warmer seawater to the grounded ice, speeding up melting and destabilising the glacier more than a simple line would allow. The paper’s abstract says the observed changes could only be reconstructed when grounding zones were represented as regions 2 to 5 km wide.

Key Facts

  • Projection: up to 30 ± 6 mm of sea level rise by 2100
  • About double previous projections, even without extra warming
  • Possible unpinning from seafloor ridges: as early as 2038
  • Grounding zones modelled as 2-5 km wide
  • Published: 12 October 2026, Nature Communications

Sea level rise of up to 30 mm by 2100

Run forward, the model shows grounding-zone processes control when the glacier detaches from seafloor ridges that currently help hold it back, enabling “unpinning” as early as 2038, the authors wrote. It projects up to 30 millimetres, plus or minus 6 mm, of global mean sea level rise from Thwaites by 2100, approximately double previous projections, even without additional climate warming. Including grounding zones also made the model far more accurate: NASA said it matched historical satellite data going back to the 1990s four times more closely than models without this factor. The paper notes that the Amundsen Sea sector, which includes Thwaites, accounts for about a third of mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

What the NASA JPL model means for coasts

The study’s authors include Mattia Poinelli, Eric Rignot, Hélène Seroussi, Joshua Cuzzone, Tyler Pelle and Eric Larour. The glacier holds a sea-level equivalent of about 65 cm, according to the paper. Thwaites is a major contributor to global sea level rise, but projecting its long-term behaviour has been hard because of complex processes at its base. The researchers believe the model can give more reliable information on glacier dynamics, which coastal regions most exposed to higher seas need for planning, NASA said. The paper says warm ocean water has eroded the floating base of Thwaites since at least the mid-1990s, driving about 25 km of grounding-line retreat in its fastest-flowing western sector. UC Irvine, announcing the work, described the melting of Thwaites as worse than previously thought.

Why It Matters: Thwaites is one of the biggest uncertainties in future sea level. A model that better matches past satellite data gives coastal cities a sharper sense of the risk they face.

Also on TrendDesh: Deepwater Horizon study finds Gulf of Mexico deep-sea life fell by about 60% and never recovered · Bieszczady National Park turns red and gold in NASA Landsat 9 image of Poland's autumn forests

Source: NASA Science, 20 Oct 2026 · Nature Communications (Poinelli et al., 2026) · UC Irvine School of Physical Sciences

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